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DefiRate Fed odds: what it does, what it costs, where it stops
Last checked 2026-09-08
DefiRate's Fed decision odds page shows the probability of each FOMC outcome on six prediction market venues side by side, plus a volume-weighted aggregate. When checked it covered the September 15 to 16, 2026 meeting with a 25 basis point hike at 54.3% and a hold at 45.5% on the aggregate line.
It is a free reference page for one recurring event class, not a scanner. It shows where venues disagree on the Fed; finding the trade is on you.
What it does
The page lists the outcomes for the next meeting, hike sizes and hold, with a probability per venue and an aggregate. The aggregate is a volume-weighted average price, weighting each venue by its 24-hour USD trading volume, falling back to a simple average when volume is unavailable.
The page also lists the prior meeting and its resolution. When checked, July 29, 2026 was shown as resolved at a 3.50% to 3.75% hold, and the June 2026 meeting was referenced as Kevin Warsh's first decision.
Each venue gets a one-line description on the page: Kalshi as a CFTC-regulated USD derivatives exchange, Polymarket as a USDC market on Polygon, Polymarket US as the CFTC-regulated version through QCX, Gemini Predictions settling in USD, ForecastEx sourced from the FEX API, and OG through Crypto.com.
- Six venues on one line per outcome
- Updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing
- Prior meeting resolution shown for context
- Links to DefiRate's fee comparison and calculator pages
Pricing
Free to view. DefiRate describes itself as an independent, advertising-supported publisher and comparison service, and the page carries promo-code links for the venues it lists.
Venues and data
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini Predictions, ForecastEx and OG. The page notes prices can differ across venues because of fees, bid-ask spreads and other market frictions.
Hourly updates are fine for a meeting that is days away and too slow on decision day, when the books move in minutes.
Where it falls short
The page does not compute a fee-adjusted return per contract. It shows raw probabilities and points you to the calculators page for the fee math.
It covers Fed decisions only. For any other event you need a general scanner. And the page cannot execute: turning a venue disagreement into a position means opening each venue, or a cross-venue terminal.
Who should use it
Macro traders who trade the FOMC line and want a fast read on where each venue sits, and anyone checking a rate-hike spread before running the numbers in a calculator.
Questions about DefiRate Fed odds
Is the DefiRate Fed odds page free?
Yes. DefiRate is an advertising-supported publisher and the page has no paywall.
Which venues does DefiRate compare for Fed odds?
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini Predictions, ForecastEx and OG.
How often does the DefiRate Fed odds page update?
Hourly, using a volume-weighted average across venues.
Does DefiRate show fee-adjusted profit on Fed contracts?
No. The page shows raw probabilities and links to DefiRate's separate calculators for fee math.
Trackers find the edge. Calculators size it. Alerts time it.
When it is time to execute, the free Kairos terminal trades Kalshi, Polymarket and Predict.fun from one book.